A STUDY OF ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING TOTAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN VIETNAM’S PORTS USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze the economic factors affecting total cargo throughput in Vietnam's ports and to show how these factors affect cargo, especially which factor influences most by using vector error correction model (VECM). The data of economics factors and total cargo throughput in Vietnam’s ports have been collected quarterly from 1991 to 2021. The five main factors are: Gross Domestic Product, the total value of exports and imports, industry production value, agriculture, forestry and fishing production value, and capital investment. The results show that the different economic factors affect the cargo throughput dissimilarly. Among the 5 economic factors, the total value of exports and import has the greatest influence on the total cargo throughput in Vietnam’s ports.